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The following is a comprehensive guide on how to raise your blacksmithing skill. Next to goldsmithing, this is perhaps the most profitable tradeskill you can learn.

skill 0-2: bronze ingots(fire crystal + 3xcopper ore +1xtin ore)
note: don't use beastcoins unless you have saved up a bunch of them on your own. They are expensive. Buy copper ore from the San D'Oria blacksmith's guild or from the Goldsmith's guild in Mhaura.

skill 2-4: bronze sheets(fire crystal + bronze ingot)
note: Just use the ingots you made getting to 2 skill. You should have about 2 stacks. That should be enough to get you to 4 skill. Go ahead and process your extra bronze ingots into sheets anyway, because you'll want them for . . .

skill 4-6: bronze scales(wind crystal + bronze sheet)
note: you will likely not make any profit selling these, so save them up, or sell them to slightly more advanced smiths if you are desperate. If you save them up, you can use them later on scale armor suits.

skill 6-10: bronze bolt heads(wind crystal + bronze ingot)
note: easier just to buy bronze ingots off others for this, at least on Midgardsormr. You can smelt your own, but it's tedious. You'll need 4-5 stacks of ingots to get to 10 skill, on average, so that's a LOT of ore to process. bronze bolt heads themselves are worthless, and the bronze bolts you can make with them don't sell very well, at least not on Midgardsormr. Your mileage may vary. I would advise selling these to the guild npc or a standard npc, taking the almost complete loss, and moving on with your life(and your craft)

I have heard one report that bronze scales can be made until 10 skill, but I was unable to get past 6 skill myself. It's possible something was changed in a patch, but I can not confirm this. Bronze bolt heads may also get you to 11 skill, but again, I can not confirm this.

skill 10-15/16: scale mail suits OR bronze rods(look up the recipes yourself) OR maybe tin ingots(fire crystal + 4xtin ore)
note: Depending on your server's economy, one or the other may be more wise. On Midgardsormr, I could make scale mail suits at an average of 1800 gil per suit, which was okay, because I wound up selling them at about 2k per suit. After this time, the market on scale mail collapsed. I think they sell for about 1500 per suit now. Bronze rods, on the other hand, cost much less to make(2x bronze + 1x copper + fire crystal . . . about 700 gil?), and do not sell to any player. Expect to get about 40 gil from the guild for these things, maybe less(and even less from standard NPCs). Bronze rods are cheaper to make and require less resource gathering, but also have a guarenteed loss that is staggering. You will need to make a LOT of either item, so be prepared to invest a lot of money one way or the other. With scale mail, you might make it back. Bronze rods may also be preferable if you have lots of spare ingots lying around for some reason. Keep in mind that the overall frustration offerd by this skill range can be mitigated by stopping your craft of scale mail and/or bronze rods at 15 skill, instead of 16(which is how high you can get off these items). Note that the new tin ingots apparently can be made from skill 10-16, or thereabouts. You can at least make them until skill 12. They are cheaper to make than bronze rods, so even if you can't sell the ingots, your losses will be lower this way.

skill 15/16-20: iron ingots(4xiron ore + fire crystal)
note: these can be made and sold at a profit if you buy ore from the AH on midgardsormr: Cost to produce in Midgardsormer: about 2100 gil(500 for ore, 90-100 for crystal). Cost to sell on Midgardsormer: currently 28k-30k for a stack of 12. The price may collapse due to other factors that I do not care to explain here. In any case, iron ingots are useful anyway, so you won't be harmed by saving them up.

skill 20- ~23: iron sheets(fire crystal + iron ingot)
note: trust me on this

skill 23-26: iron scales(wind crystal + iron sheet)
note: just use the sheets you got getting to 23(or is it 22? I don't remember how far iron sheets will take you).

skill 26-30: iron finger gauntlets, iron visors, or iron scale greaves(various recipes, I'll list below)
note: depending on your server, these may or may not sell well. They do not sell well on Midgardsormr, so I had to prop up my cash supply using other cash sources. recipes:
iron finger gauntlets: 2xiron scale, 1xcotton thread, 1xleather gloves
iron scale greaves: 2xiron scale, 1x cotton thread, 1xleather highboots
iron visor: 1xiron scale, 1xiron sheet, 1xsheep leather

Um, I think. Double check those recipes to make sure. All use earth crystals. Note that these all sell well to the guild npcs if you can't sell them to players, though you will still take a loss. The loss is least severe on visors, I think. Might wanna check that.

Iron fingor gauntlets(as well as the greaves, and visor), are all skill 31 synths. You will get a lot of failures if you try this at 26! Your other choice is to make iron chains from 26-30(earth crystal + 2xiron ingot), but these do not sell well on the open market, at least not on Midgardsormr. I made iron chains from 26-29, now that I recall, and I sold them all to a single individual(Manapy rules). If I had not sold those, my crafting would have stalled out for days due to a lack of available funds. Some people make iron masks(I think it's earth crystal + iron sheet + brass sheet) but these seemed almost as bad economically as iron chains, and the availability of brass sheets on the open market was somewhat inconsistant at the time I was crafting from 26-30. This would not be an issue for someone with goldsmithing skill.

skill 31-36: steel sheets(fire crystal + steel ingot)
note: Just buy the ingots off the AH. On Midgardsormr, it's only 40k per stack. Only *P

skill 36-40: steel scales(wind crystal + steel sheet)
note: these may or may not sell well to skill ~50 blacksmiths on your server. I have one customer(Negimaru rules!) who buys all my steel scales at 3500 gil apiece. I make a profit off these.

skill 40-41: iron mittens(earth crystal + 1xiron sheet + 1xlizard skin).
note: these require around 10 leatherworking. If you can manage that, this is an easy, cheap way to gain skill. You can sell them to the Bastok blacksmithing guild for up to 2700 gil apiece, it seems. These do NOT require 41 leatherworking as many crafting lists say that they do. Keep in mind that you probably won't be able to gain blacksmithing skill on these past 41. They seem to raise leatherworking too, up to 10, if you don't have it already(I did them with leatherworking 9). Gaining two skills at once is fun.

skill 41-45: iron subligars(earth crystal + iron sheet + lizard skin + cotton cloth)
note: I finally understand what it was the jp blacksmith was trying to tell me. You can skill up on iron mittens up to skill 41(not minimum skill 41), and you can can skill on iron subligars up to 45. You can gain leatherworking up to 12 on them, too. These sell to the Bastok blacksmith's guild for 3560 odd gil, max. Keep in mind that the guild only buys around 18 of any one item per day(maybe only 16?), and that the price they pay will drop for a few days after you sell a lot of them(and will rise back to the max price later).

skill 45-49: steel visors(wind crystal + iron scales + steel sheet + sheep leather)
note: The only reason I advocate this synth is the fact that you can sell them to the San D'Oria Blacksmith's guild for 5040 gil apiece, max. That amounts to a decent return, but you are losing money doing it. Steel visors will sell in Jeuno to players sometimes(they're level 48 steel scale for crying out loud), but at least on Midgardsormr, they uh, don't sell all that swiftly. You can also try the steel finger gauntlets(earth crystal + 2xsteel scales + leather gloves + cotton thread) which might take you to 50 skill, but they sell for less to the blacksmith's guild, and seem to sell even less often on the Jeuno AH than steel visors. And they cost more to make, too. Similar analysis applies to steel scale greaves.

skill 49-52: Darksteel ingots(fire crystal + 3xiron ore + darksteel ore)
note: This is expensive, and you will scream in pain when you lose a chunk of darksteel ore. Well, nearly. These can be sold at a profit, however, and they do sell fairly well. Sell them to players, of course. The going rate on darksteel will be affected by the price of the materials that go into making them, the supply, and the demand, but you should be able to get at least 1k profit per ingot. Possibly more. On Midgardsormr, they cost about 7500 gil to make, and sell for around 11k-12k in Jeuno on the AH(in singles anyway). I don't know how high this will take you, but I've gotten to 52 skill on them. I had to make 27 ingots just to get that last point of skill.

skill 52-55: Darksteel sheets(fire crystal + darksteel ingot)
note: An easy synth if you have lots of darksteel ingots left over after getting to 52 skill. It's nice not having to juggle all that ore. Getting to 53 skill off this was very, very slow, but it picks up afterwards, and it turns out you can make these until 55 skill! What a deal! Skill AND you can sell them for a profit.

55-56: Steel greaves(earth crystal + 2xsteel scales + cotton thread + leather highboots)
note: joy, more steel scale crap. These cost about 7k per item on Midgardsormer to manufacture, and sell to the guild for 4200 apiece, at most. Can you say nearly 3k loss per synth? I knew you could. I made 24 of them and got .8 skill, which . . . mmm well at least I got some skill. On the plus side, these will sell in limited numbers in Jeuno, depending on your server. Try not to over-saturate the market too badly. There might be something better to make at this skill level, but I don't really know what. Breastplates are a possible option, but gathering enough components to make breastplates is a nightmare. Gauntlets are also an option, but they also promise losses of about 3k per synth. Schlaegers are another option, but I don't have any goldsmithing to test them out(yet), and losses on this synth will vary with darksteel prices. I may raise goldsmithing to 10-15 or so just to try Schlaegers. Or I may not.

56-68(?): Nodawa(earth crystal + iron sheet + silk thread)
note: What a let-down. The Nodawa is a fountain of skill, but no fountain of gil. I was figuring I'd get 5k per nodawa selling to NPCs. No such luck! Players on Midgardsormr do not buy these, at all, and they sell to NPCs for about 2750, or to Tenshodo shops for just under 3k(and only in small quantities). But the recipe is simple, you can make a lot of them, and you can skill up on them for a loooooong time. I'm going to be doing that for awhile. The losses are somewhat disappointing in light of all the failures I've gotten on them from 56-59, but one you hit 59, it seems to be easy-street. 58-59 is really rough. Tough it out, or pick a different synth(your choice) until you hit 59.